Risk controls and forward observation
Goal
Separate research evidence from decisions about putting capital at risk.
Lesson
Return alone hides path and execution risk. Review drawdown, losing streaks, concentration, liquidity, fees, slippage, and exposure. Leverage adds liquidation risk. A stop-loss cannot guarantee a fill at its trigger during gaps or illiquid conditions.
After historical checks, observe a frozen candidate in dry-run. Compare live signals and timing with the backtest, record missed or delayed events, and do not tune against the observation period while calling it prospective. Paper trading is a useful operational check, not proof of future profitability.
Practice
Write the conditions that stop an experiment, the maximum allowed test duration, and the evidence required before another review. Keep API credentials outside strategies, websites, and published artifacts.